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Whiting Group Limited Investment Comment: Middle-East conflict

US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military-related targets have intensified, but this has not stopped Iran from terrorizing its immediate neighbours with less discriminate and often seemingly random attacks on civilian targets.

Over the past days the conflict has widened, into Lebanon with Israel responding to rocket attacks from Hezbollah, and into other Arab states around the wider Gulf with Iran’s attacks on infrastructure and tourist areas. These were predicted to last for some days, but show no signs of ending as of yet, even if the volume of missiles and drones launched from Iran have declined.

What has had much bigger impact on the global economic outlook than Iran’s reckless attacks on its neighbours, has been their apparent success in stopping commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, particularly threatening the important oil and gas ports of Saudi Arabia and the UAE. As a consequence, near-term prices have now risen sharply while long-term energy futures have also moved up somewhat. However, it remains too early to predict what will happen even in the near to medium term because much depends on the success or failure of the US-Israeli forces in the destruction of Iran’s airborne military capabilities, as well as potential leadership changes in Iran.

From an investment perspective, geopolitical upheaval of this nature creates a short-term market shock because of the sudden increase in uncertainty. Markets have reacted with a wide margin of error in their attempt to price in an array of possible outcome but still in the way most would have expected based on historical precedence.

• Spot Brent crude (as of Monday morning at 10am) is trading around $105 per barrel, up from around $85-90 in Friday’s day trading and well above January’s $65 average: Natural gas prices are also higher by a similar proportion.
• The US Dollar is about 2% higher against major currencies and 3% higher versus emerging market currencies.
• Equities (in sterling terms) have fallen; US about 3%; European and UK equity futures are now lower by about 6%; Japan is down more than 8%.
• China has fared better than most, down 3%. However other emerging market equities have been hardest hit, down an average of 10% since their peak at the end of February.
• Longer maturity bonds were initially relatively stable but have turned more negative. This is especially so for UK Gilts. Overall, 10-year bond yields have risen by an average of 0.2% with US treasury yields up to 4.2%. However, UK 10-year yields have spiked higher by 0.5% to 4.75%.

Oil prices of course matter, but investors will especially watch the forward-looking futures contracts beyond six months for signals on whether there could be a wider impact on global growth and inflation. Compared to the $40 pb increase in the spot markets, oil is $10 pb higher for next March, $5 pb in 2 years and less than $3 pb beyond 3 years.

The Gulf’s oil exporters are currently exploring how their bypassing pipeline network may be used to narrow the 20mn bpd gap (against over 100mn bpd global production) the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused. There are also various military and political considerations in flux that aim at reopening of the Strait in the near term.

Equity markets are better positioned for a higher risk environment than a month ago, because of cheaper valuations and less optimism. This remains the case and while stock markets around the world have continued to price an ever-worsening outcome of the oil blockade, others will recognise the discount markets are trading on compared to the pre-war outlook and are therefore looking for buying opportunities as they arise. This explains some of the extreme volatility gyrations in both directions which investors will have observed over the course of the past week.

We are monitoring the situation very closely and we will provide further updates as the pattern of the conflict develops.

Thank you,

Whiting Group Limited

Important information

This Comment is provided for information purposes only and compiled from sources believed to be correct but cannot be guaranteed. It should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell an investment or any related financial instruments.

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